Micro Milestones
Micro Milestones . . .
. . . A brief look at ongoing technological advances. Landmark Computer Labs tracks relevant technologies
that influence the growth of personal computing. Currently we subscribe to (and occasionally read!) over 50
trade papers and journals. We'll add items periodically as we plow through the weekly stack. Click here for the really old news.
Click on any highlighted item to jump to the detail portion [
] of this page or to a linked page [
].
Petabytes: the new buzzword
Now that we measure hard disk drive capacities by the gigabyte (a thousand megabytes or a
thousand thousand kilobytes), it's time to look to the future. Beyond the gigabyte comes the
terabyte: a thousand gigs. Now Oracle Corp., publisher
of heavy-duty database software, has announced that Oracle8, its new database engine due in mid-1997, will
contain code that handles petabytes of data. A petabyte is a thousand terabytes. The largest Oracle7
database now contains about five terabytes of data. Oracle8 will support more than 10,000 concurrent users.
(PCW, 11-11-96)
Good news and bad news
The good news is, Oracle is getting ready for really big databases
(see above). The bad news: applications based on the company's PL/SQL language could break down at the
end of 1999. It's the Year 2000 problem. PL/SQL has to be rewritten to take four-digit years into account.
The company will release a Year 2000 patch for the 10.6 version of its applications, and is readying a 10.7
version which understands the 21st century. But there's no fix planned for earlier versions, so users will have
to upgrade. (PCW, 11-4-96)
Video compression technology improves performance,
quality
The Houston Advanced Research Center has announced a new method for compressing images, film, and
video that is superior to the current JPEG and MPEG industry standards. Called HARC-C, the software
algorithm uses a compression ration of several hundred-to-one. At 300:1, for example, HARC-C can reduce a
2.4 Mb. image file to 8 Kb. while maintaining the clarity of the original image. Bandwidth is a major problem
with interactive video. HARC-C may speed the introduction of digital movies-on-demand. (PCGV, June
1995)
(We will update this asap. This stuff changes pretty quickly. Who can keep up?)
Rewritable CD drives on the way
Now that five industry leaders announced agreement on a standard format late in October, Philips and Ricoh are expected to
release drives that will write eraseable CD disks early in 1997. Price? Less than $1000. Hewlett-Packard, Mitsubishi, and
Sony also have agreed to the standard, which will allow disks
created on CD-RW (read-write) drives to be read on CD-ROM and DVD (digital videodisk) drives. The new
UDF (Universal Disk Format) for rewritable CDs allows users to drag and drop files to CD-RW drives with a
graphical file manager such as Windows Explorer. (PCW, 11-11-96)
Cable modems due in 1996
Zenith and Intel are among the major manufacturers who will
announce new cable modems in 1996. The modems use high-speed fiber coaxial lines (think cable TV rather
than telephone wire) to give users a way to download information at speeds from 10 to 40 megabits per
second. Uploads over community cable will be slower--3 mbps. AT&T Network Systems, Hewlett-Packard,
and Intel are jointly developing a standard protocol that will use existing cable equipment. It is due at the end
of 1995.
While many believe we'll use the phone company's ISDN (Integrated Services Digital Network) lines to
carry future Internet traffic, ISDN is a difficult technology to work with, and it's expensive. Using cable TV
may be a better, cheaper way to link servers and PCs. Currently, though, only eight percent of the US has
two-way cable technology. One-way cable systems cover 95 percent of the country. General Instrument Corp.
will release a one-way cable modem in March that can download at 27 mbps. Uploads, however, will use
standard telco modem speeds. (PCW, 12-4-95)
Solid state "hard disks" on the way
Snap-in memory cards for notebook computers will become commonplace as prices for flash memory continue
to decline, according to Dataquest, Inc. Flash memory costs will drop more than 80 percent by 1998. A 16
Megabyte memory card that cost $830. last year will cost $280 next year. Solid-state memory that holds data
even when the power is off will challenge hard disks and tape drives as a primary means of storage, especially
in mobile computing, where ruggedness, light weight, and absence of moving parts are prized. (EBB, May
1995)
Flat LCD panels challenge desktop monitors
Flat-panel liquid-crystal displays are moving into the mainstream to challenge tube-based video monitors.
NEC Electronics Inc. is making its line of 6.5" to 12" displays available through a national distributor in
hopes of capturing market share in medical, factory floor, and entertainment applications. (EBB, May 1995)
TCI rolls out flat-rate, high-speed Net access
Tele-Communications Inc. has announced high-speed Internet access at a flat rate of $29.95 per month. TCI's
10 Mbps pipeline is 1,000 times the speed of a 9600-baud modem. However, since it's a shared access line,
transfer rates will fall if many others are accessing the Internet at the same time. TCI, whose cable system
covers 25% of the country, expects to make the online service available to all its subscribers by 1997. TCI is
based in Englewood, Colorado. (CRN, 1-1-96)
Software piracy rates are lower in the US . . .
. . . than in Asia and the Pacific, but we're not exactly saints, either. IDC (International Data Corporation), a
market research firm, estimates that in 1994, when figures were last available, 98-99% of all commercial
software in use in Indonesia, Thailand, and Vietnam was unlicensed bootleg copies. In Japan 67% of the
software was pirated. In the US? A paltry 35%. (PCW, 11-4-96)
A third of US homes now have PCs
Personal computers have made it into a third of all US homes, according to the Software Publishers
Association. 60% of the home PC buyers were buying their first system. An astounding 55% of all home
computers now have CD-ROM drives. (EBB, May 1995)
Key to sources
CRN: Computer Reseller News
EBB: Electronic Business Buyer
IW: InfoWorld
PCGV: PC Graphics & Video
PCW: PC Week
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Last update: 11-14-96.
